Fixing the global food system. What are our options?

The industrialisation and technologization of agriculture that began in the 1950s, known as the Green Revolution, led to an impressive increase in food supply, a fall in food prices, significantly stimulated productive employment across the industry and lifted millions out of poverty.

However, today, the shadow of this is a food system which is highly interdependent and susceptible to shocks, whilst being a major driver of biodiversity loss around the world, a significant contributor to climate change and a drain on and risk to vital water resources.

With the emergence of new technologies and approaches to food production, and as we become more acutely aware of issues around food security, we have an opportunity to rethink the future of the food system.

The Challenges

Global food production is the world’s greatest cause of habitat destruction and global loss of wildlife, primarily due to land conversion and degradation of critical ecosystems like tropical forests, grasslands and wetlands.  

Global food systems are also impacting climate change, contributing over one third of GHG emissions globally, with 70% of this coming from farming. Those food systems are in turn impacted by climate change, as both environment and people (e.g. farmers) are vulnerable to the impacts of higher temperatures as well as more extreme and unpredictable weather events. We are also seeing dangerous levels of soil degradation, resulting from unsustainable agricultural practices, deforestation and a changing climate.

Food production consumes over 70% of freshwater globally and is a major source of pollution, particularly in the case of livestock farming.

And that’s not all; unless there is a radical change in the way we produce our food, by 2050 the world will need to grow 50% more grain. The biggest crisis is not in growth in human numbers, but growth in livestock numbers to feed a growing population, with growing incomes – and these animals must also be fed. Alongside this too much food is being lost or wasted in every country every day– roughly one-third of the food produced worldwide is wasted each year.

Holding this all together is a network which is highly integrated and interdependent. Just four plants – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – account for almost 60% of the calories grown by farmers, and 90% of the world’s grain passes through the hands of just four corporations. The result is a system which has become less resilient and able to withstand major shocks like those we are experiencing currently.

The Solutions

There are many challenges, and many routes forward. Here we take a look at some of the solutions proposed, grouped into three types of ‘future food system ’.

1.       A ‘Sustainable Agriculture’ Driven System

2.     A Science and Technology Driven System

3.     A Locally Driven System

The Solutions in Focus

A ‘Sustainable Agriculture’ Driven System

Regenerative Agriculture

Regenerative agriculture: Food’s latest buzzword, with increasing media coverage, corporate announcements and government subsidies promoting these practices. Practices include no or minimised synthetic inputs, cover crops, no till, crop rotation and diversification, integrating livestock, and integrating trees with crops.

Benefits

Environmental benefits: Regenerative agriculture is lauded for achieving improved soil health, greater carbon sequestration, improved biodiversity, and better resilience.

Limits

Low yields: Claims that it is ‘yield blind’ – lower yields mean greater land requirements to produce the same quantities of grain and other crops as intensive farming.





 

Organic Farming

Organic farming: Not dissimilar from regenerative agriculture, organic farming involves a strict set of standards around soils, ecosystems, animal and people, such as fewer pesticides, no artificial fertilisers, and higher animal welfare.

Benefits

Climate and nature: Proponents of organic claim it can reduce farm-level emissions and boost biodiversity.

Soil health: Tolhurst Organic farm is pioneering in using organic techniques to raise soil fertility without fertiliser or manure.

Limits

Low yields: Similar to regenerative agriculture it can result in high land use/low yield. One study found that if England and Wales became entirely organic, our land footprint would grow by 40%.

Debate on extent of emissions reduction: Numerous studies have found that the GHG emissions from organic produce tend to be similar or worse per kg to those of conventional food.

Water pollution: The use of manure instead of artificial fertilisers leads to runoff and water pollution.

Other Solutions

For livestock, these include practices such as using alternative feeds and methane reducing feed additives, manure management (e.g. storage and separation techniques) and breeding practices (e.g. selective breeding, optimising the age of slaughter).

A Science and Technology-Driven System

Alternative Proteins

Alternative proteins: The indoor production of proteins and fats is posed by some as an alternative to livestock farming. Alternative proteins have three main pillars: plant-based, cultivated (lab-grown) meat and fermentation. Perhaps the most promising of the three is the latter, fermentation - which includes precision fermentation, microbial fermentation and biomass fermentation (see this article for an explanation). A report by RethinkX, which looked at the impacts of a protein disruption driven largely by precision fermentation, found that by 2030, the demand for cow products will have fallen by 70% and production volumes of US beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will decline by 50%. The potential of precision and microbial fermentation is a key topic of activist and journalist George Monbiot’s most recent book, Regenesis.

Benefits

Significant environmental benefits: A shift to plant-based reduces carbon emissions - raising 1kg of beef proteins releases over 100 times more GHG than growing a kg of pea protein (this will vary depending on the sourcing regions). A protein disruption driven by precision fermentation is predicted to reduce net GHG emissions from the livestock industry by 45% by 2030. Not only will this impact emissions but also natural resources - replacing just 20% of global beef consumption and other grazing livestock with proteins made from fermentation could cut annual deforestation in half by 2050.

Cost: Currently the costs of alternative proteins can vary greatly. Plant-based protein is already low cost. Lab-grown protein is high cost, leading critics to claim it will never be financially viable. Fermentation proteins are declining in cost - one study found that the cost of fermentation proteins will be 5x cheaper than existing animal proteins by 2030 and 10x cheaper by 2035.

Limits

Ability to scale: The start-ups in this space are still nascent, under-resourced, typically western-based and few. Greater investment will be needed to scale these technologies.

Job disruption: There could be extreme disruption to farming and rural communities. The shift to alt proteins would require a just transition to ensure those that work in the industry are reskilled and employed elsewhere.

Perennial Crops

Perennial crops: One solution posed for arable farming is a switch to perennial crops. The Land Institute developed perennial grain crops meaning wheat, rice and other grains from crops last from year to year, removing annual ploughing and sowing.

Benefits

Environmental benefits: The benefits to the environment are numerous, particularly in relation to soil health as the land remains covered for years at a time. One study found that if there was a global switch to perennial grain crops, agricultural soils would re-gain up to two-thirds of the carbon they’ve lost since they were first ploughed.

Resilience: The deep roots and touch structures of perennial plants are likely to make them better adapted to extreme weather.

Reduced costs for farmers: Once these crops are established, they should require little in the way of fertiliser, less irrigation and less use of machinery, lowering farmers’ overheads.

Limits

Low yields: Perhaps the biggest challenge is that perennial grain yields are currently very low and significant investment will be needed to increase this.

Vertical Farming

Vertical Farming: Vertical farming – growing plants indoors in layers using LED lighting and controlled growing and nutrition systems - has seen increased uptake and investment in recent years. The industry is expected to grow over the next decade, with research predicting a doubling of annual sales to $1.5bn. Using automation to monitor crops and create optimum growing conditions, it has been heralded as a sustainable and local solution to feed urban populations.

Benefits

Efficient: Vertical farming methods use 95% less water than standard arable farming and can yield twenty times more lettuce than agricultural fields.

Limits

High costs: Cost of real estate, technology and electricity usage are significant and create questions around profitability and scale.

A Locally-Driven System

There is a view that a solution to the challenges of the food and farming system is to build better local food systems, marked by shorter supply chains, which claim to benefit society and the environment. However, whilst there might be good social and cultural reasons to buy local food, the data shows there are seldom good climate reasons as logistics make up such a small percentage of a products footprint, particularly in the case of meat and dairy products.

So what next?

The global food and agriculture system is extremely complex and there are no easy answers.

 It is difficult to imagine any one solution fixing the vast array of problems and challenges. Whether it is organic, regenerative, tech innovations, local or major dietary shift, each has their own philosophy and each are either complementary or competing visions of the future of agriculture.

Where there appears to be a particular clash is on the topic of livestock farming. It is the view of some that many of the solutions proposed for a more ‘sustainable’ farming system, such as regenerative agriculture, won’t cut it. These critics call for full-scale systems change, such as that offered by fermentation technology to create alternative proteins.  However, new technology doesn’t always deliver and comes with its own risks. Furthermore, livestock farming is not about to disappear, and so regenerative methods will have an important role to play.

Ultimately, a balanced diet for the world may need to consist of a mix of all of the above solutions.

Want to learn more?

If you want to find out more about the global food system, there are plenty of books and studies out there. Below are some of our top picks:

Get in touch

Do get in touch if you have any thoughts or you’d like to discuss how we can help you with your sustainability goals.

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NEW MODELS, FOOD WASTE, INNOVATIONHarriet AyliffeSustainable business, Sustainability strategy, New sustainability models, food waste, sustainable farming